Bangladesh Watch: 2022 and Beyond

This will actually include the rest of the 2021 as well with home series vs Pakistan.

Its been almost 7 years since I did a thread like this, and that time there was a lot of optimism (http://www.zimcricketforums.com/viewtop ... f=6&t=7144).

Bangladesh actually exceeded my expectations in that 4 year block picking up ODI series wins vs Pakistan, India, South Africa, making the Champions Trophy Semifinal, retaining a top 7 ODI ranking throughout that time (up to the present), and then winning Tests against England, Australia, Sri Lanka, and West Indies. The period ended with a disappointing 8th place finish at the World Cup (Bangladesh were the 6th team for 80% of that tournament before South Africa and Sri Lanka snuck up from behind us).

For 2022 and onwards, I am far more pessimistic. Currently, there seems to be a lot of drama going on - I say seems because I don't know the details, but there seems to be mass discontent amongst at least a faction of cricketers. Don't really know what its about. I'll try to focus mostly on cricket related things.

Test cricket

My favorite format.

Bangladesh had the most matches/series cancelled due to COVID during WTC, playing just 7 of their scheduled 14 Tests. 6 losses, and just a solitary draw against a weak Sri Lanka outfit was massively disappointing. Bangladesh was also the very last out of the Test nations to resume first class cricket after the pandemic started, with the National Cricket League resuming just 3 weeks ago.

WTC 2 is not going to be an easy schedule for Bangladesh. Home series vs Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka will mean Bangladesh cannot try to bank on turning pitches. Overseas tours of New Zealand, South Africa, and West Indies (plus a series in Zimbabwe) means 8 Tests on seam-friendly pitches in a span of 8 months. That is not a workload that Bangladesh are used to, made even more difficult with continuous bio-bubbles.

At best I can see Bangladesh drawing a couple of Tests at home, and losing the rest away. The one draw in WTC 1 spared us of the ignominy of finishing dead last and with zero points. We will have to really fight hard to ensure we don't finish on 0 again this time around. Of course, I'm excited to see us play in whites, I just think there is a very high probability we could lose 12 out of 12 Tests.

With Tamim Iqbal and Mushfiqur Rahim still in their prime, and Mominul Haque, and young Najmul Hossain Shanto...I still think we have the batting ability to draw Tests, especially at home. And while I think the bowling has more promise than it ever had before (not exactly a high bar here), its still way too raw, and never gets the support it needs to prosper. Therefore, taking 20 wickets, will more than likely be a pipedream.

ODI cricket

We still remain reliant on the senior Big 4 of Tamim, Mushy, Shakib, and Riyad. I would like to see Shanto get a long run, and I think he has the talent to be Bangladesh's Babar Azam in Tests and ODIs. I really think it should be the end of the road, and perhaps the BCB feels the same, with Soumya Sarkar and Liton Das, and now is the time to slowly start blooding the 2020 U-19 batch with Towhid Hridoy and Mahmudul Hasan Joy looking the most ready so far. Tanzid Hasan Tamim is an exciting talent IMO, but he tends to get dismissed cheaply all too often. Still young Tamim has hit his maiden first class century, and now averages 37 at a strike rate of 83.

I think Shoriful Islam is fantastic find of a seamer, and I suspect he will soon be joined by his former U-19 new ball partner, Tanzim Hasan Sakib. I would also like to see SLA Rakibul Hasan in the mix sooner rather than later.

T20 cricket

Don't really care about this format, so I won't go into much detail, but unless Bangladesh makes a U-turn, they will struggle mightily in next years world cup.

Overall Conclusion

I think its clear now that Bangladesh are at present not going to become much better than they already are. That is to say, they will likely remain a 8-9th ranked side in Tests, a 6-7th ranked side in ODIs, and 10th ranked side in T20Is. To be an elite team (top 5) in any format, reqiures having a good pace attack, in addition to solid batting lineup. Bangladesh lack the first, and are iffy on the latter. Its not that there isn't pace talent in Bangladesh or that we are a country that can only produce 125-130 kph trundlers. We have probably 7-8 bowlers domestically who can consistently bowl 135-140, and 4 or 5 who can bowl 140+. Its that our climate excludes the types of pitches in which fast bowlers can thrive. Pakistan and many of Indian's pace bowlers come from a wholly different climate which is arid, and hot (Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkwa, and Uttar Pradesh/Delhi) and so even if the pitches are low and slow or devoid of grass, bowlers can reverse the ball. In Bangladesh the weather is too warm for traditional swing (unlike England or New Zealand), but also too humid and wet for reverse (unlike most of Pakistan, and many parts of north-central India).

A second thing is that Bangladesh's cricketing culture is very uni-dimensional in many respects. For example, the idea that off spinners can only bowl to left handed batsmen is pervasive and not something that will go away quickly. There is also an aversion to bowling wrist spin, and so you end up just right and left handed finger spinners - which means there is both a lack in variation in our bowling attack, but also means our batsmen have little clue to face spinners who aren't orthodox turners of the ball.

There are many other problems of course, where the BCB lacks vision, decisiveness, and patience in order to make real changes and create a better cricketing culture across the country. Systemic change is needed, but very unlikely to come any time soon. Thus, Bangladesh will remain a mediocre side for the foreseeable future.